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Effects of nuclear power phase-out in Germany on the Austrian power system

Andreas Holzer
Göteborg : Chalmers tekniska högskola, 2014. 57 s.
[Examensarbete på avancerad nivå]

The present German power system is using nuclear power to satisfy the electricity demand. More than 15% of the annual German power generation was provided by nuclear power plants in 2013 [1]. The decision of the German government to phase-out all nuclear power plants in Germany by 2022 hence has a significant impact on the power system. Also neighbor countries will be affected by the phaseout of nuclear power since they relied on power exchange of Germany. This thesis studies the effects of a nuclear power phase-out in Germany on the Austrian power system. Therefore a model of the German and Austrian power system (GAPS) is developed within the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS). The aim of the model is to answer how the electricity generation and total costs in Austria and Germany are affected by a nuclear power phase-out in Germany in 2022. Further the transformation of the power exchange between Austria and Germany is analyzed. With GAPS is also investigated how the locational marginal price in Austria, usage of pumped storage hydro power and congestion of transmission lines in Austria are affected by a nuclear power phase-out in Germany. The model simulates 24 hours of a day with high demand, contains over 300 nodes, uses DC optimal power flow framework and investigates different scenarios. The different scenarios are the present system, the present system without nuclear power in Germany and a model of the future system in 2022. All Scenarios are simulated with 3 different values for wind power penetration in order to investigate how the results depend on wind power generation. Export and import parameters from Austria and Germany to neighbor countries are based on historic values of the reference day. The results of the different scenarios are compared to develop a conclusion how the nuclear power phase out affect the power system. It could be shown that the electricity imports of Austria from Germany increase sharply in 2022 without nuclear power in Germany. In Austria between 46% and 10% more natural gas is used, depending on wind conditions, in 2022. In total, in Germany and Austria together, between 39 and 26% more coal power is used in the future power system. The total generation costs in Austria and Germany depend strongly on the wind power conditions in the future. The fluctuation range of total generation costs increases due to a higher dependency on wind power in 2022 but the increase of total costs of electricity generation is low with respect to a demand increase in 2022. It can be also noticed that the usage of pumped storage hydro power decreases in 2022 because of a change of the generation mix and hence the number of economic operation hours for pumped storage hydro power are reduced in Austria and Germany.

Nyckelord: Power generation dispatch, Power system modeling, Power system economics, GAMS

Publikationen registrerades 2015-01-22. Den ändrades senast 2015-01-22

CPL ID: 211401

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