A simulation based forecast algorithm for public transportation
[Examensarbete på avancerad nivå]
This thesis describes a simulation based system for forecasting arrival and departure times in complex public transit systems. The variables included in the calculations are: time of day, vehicle schedule adherence, estimated passenger count on stop, interactions with other vehicles and vehicle position from both historical and contemporary data. The use of a simulation based algorithm simplies the implementation of a complex model with a great number of dierent dependencies. Additionally, creating a forecast using historical data while looking at dierent data features to nd similarities gives a more accurate forecast than just looking at a moving average using data from the current day.
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