In English

A simulation based forecast algorithm for public transportation

Jonathan Daugaard ; Erik Larkö
Göteborg : Chalmers tekniska högskola, 2014. 63 s.
[Examensarbete på avancerad nivå]

This thesis describes a simulation based system for forecasting arrival and departure times in complex public transit systems. The variables included in the calculations are: time of day, vehicle schedule adherence, estimated passenger count on stop, interactions with other vehicles and vehicle position from both historical and contemporary data. The use of a simulation based algorithm simpli es the implementation of a complex model with a great number of di erent dependencies. Additionally, creating a forecast using historical data while looking at di erent data features to nd similarities gives a more accurate forecast than just looking at a moving average using data from the current day.

Publikationen registrerades 2014-09-19.

CPL ID: 203064

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