In English

Scenarios to 2030 of energy use and CO2 emissions in EU industry

Evangelos Karampoutakis
Göteborg : Chalmers tekniska högskola, 2008. 94 s.
[Examensarbete på avancerad nivå]

The energy use and associated carbon dioxide emissions from EU industry is the main focus of this study. This sector accounts for about 30% of total energy use and 23% of total carbon dioxide emissions (including emissions from electricity generation) in the EU25. Due to the climate change effects caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, increasing attention is being paid to the potential for mitigating emissions of carbon dioxide in industry as well as in other sectors. The purpose of this study was to estimate energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in EU industry to 2030, assuming increasing costs for emitting carbon dioxide. Estimates were made separately for 10 industry branches, with separate estimates for old member states (EU15) and new member states (NMS10). Energy use in each branch was estimated by calculating energy use per added value as a function of energy prices, energy price elasticities and an autonomous efficiency improvement constant. Assumed values on energy price elasticities and autonomous efficiency improvement constant were based on partly literature data and partly regression analyses, carried out within this study, of time series data of energy use per added value and energy prices. Time series data on energy use and added value were taken from the Odyssee database and data on energy prices from the IEA database. A great share of the regression analyses did not yield results of high statistical significance, most likely due to several limitations in data. First, the level of branch aggregation in the Odyssee data is relatively high, which means that possible correlation between energy price and energy use may be obscured by structural changes within the branch. Second, the length of the time series data in Odyssee is about 25 years for EU15 and only 10-15 years for NMS10, which is probably insufficient since the price impact on energy use in industry is heavily lagged, especially in capital-intensive industry branches where capital lifetime may exceed 30 years. Third, the IEA energy price data contain only average prices for the entire industry, which obviously is a source of inaccuracy since energy prices, particularly of electricity, may vary substantially between industry branches. In the “Baseline” scenario of this study, where carbon costs are assumed to remain at current levels in the EU Emission Trading Scheme, i.e. around €25/ton CO2, energy use in EU25 industry increases by 19% to 2030 and carbon dioxide emissions by 1.1% compared to year 2000. These results are consistent with the baseline projections of the European Commission. In the “Medium carbon cost” scenario, where emission costs are assumed to increase gradually to €60/ton CO2 in 2030, energy use in 2030 remains at about current levels but carbon dioxide emissions fall by -15%. In the “High carbon cost “scenario, carbon costs are assumed to reach €120/ton CO2 in 2030, and both energy use and carbon dioxide emissions drop substantially, by 14% and 29%, respectively.

Publikationen registrerades 2011-02-01. Den ändrades senast 2013-04-04

CPL ID: 136397

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